Could there be a traitor?
Now there is a spoiler tag, I will be less ambiguous. "Who is THE traitor in the small council?"
I've only played the game once upto the point where the aforementioned fact is revealed and alt-tabbed to write this thread.
I believe we can rule out Sir Duncan. He is the most trusted adviser of the late lord Forrester Gregor, and he is the only one who is shown outside of Ironrath interacting with Gared, clearly working for the benefit of the house. I chose to kick out the fourthborn of Whitehill, which wasn't what Duncan suggested, but I will assume the traitor plot is revealed even if I choose a different path since it's pretty big reveal and Telltale doesn't really differentiate choices, in which case Duncan is not a traitor.
I find it hard to believe Sir Royland is a traitor. His personality and decades of service record would make him one of the least plausible suspect. Unless he has been acting all the time, he doesn't seem like someone who likes using schemes. Talia, likewise, is most likely not the traitor that Whitehilll lady mentioned.
The remaining suspects are the maester and mother. While maester is the most likely suspect, I actually think Ellisa(mother) is the traitor. She constantly pleads Roddrik to bend down to Whitehills. She has some unknown history with lord whitehill as revealed in their brief exchange in EP 1. I think she is hell bent on protecting the lives of the remaining family that she is willing to reveal Forrester's plans in exchange for her children's lives and that of Ryon.
So i think it's either the master or Ellisa, the latter being less likely but still a possibility. What do you think?
Comments
Duncan is still a suspect in my eye I won't rule him out simply because Gregor trusted him and he's looking for the north grove. It's difficult for me to choose because I trust everyone on my council even Ortengryn so there's no way I'll be able to guess who it is.
Ortengryn is the obvious choice for me, which is why I think it is him, and don't think it is him...Confusing much.
I bet it will turn out that Gwyn was bullshitting to gain Rodrik's trust, and they just knew because some guard was spying. But I think Gwyn is meant to be a character who is actually nice, so maybe not.
The traitor is Ortegryn. Many people say that he has saved Gared's leg and Rodrik's life, but as a master that's what he has to do, this is his duty. And if he didn't save Rodrik's life everyone in Ironrath would suspect him, watch him, his actions and etc. So, even if I were him, I'd save Rodrik's life too. This is putting hime a way.. out of suspicion.
Definitely Ortegryn, I don't see any reason why Duncan, Royland, or Lady Forrester would betray the house.
So why would Ortengryn betray the house?
He seems like the most likely candidate, he has no reason to hold any loyalties to House Forrester compared to the other members of the House. Duncan is the castellan and was assisting Gared so he could find the North Grove. Royland has visibly shown his hatred for the Whitehills and is the main advocate for fighting back and standing up to them. There's no way Lady Forrester can be the traitor, not after she was telling Rodrik to murder every single last Whitehill, and there's absolutely no way Rodrik can be the traitor since we play as him, so that makes the Maester the most likely suspect by process of elimination.
The obviousness of the traitor candidates makes it very difficult to predict who is the traitor.
Ortegryn might be the traitor, but he is far too obvious.
Duncan might be the traitor, because he is often doing something behind your back (Sending Gared to the wall, sending letter to Gared, visit Gared and somehow managed to establish a meeting with Gywn).
Royland could also be the traitor, as his hotheaded attitude toward the Whitehills could be seen as an attempt to hide his allegiance and give the Whitehills an excuse to attack.
And yes, even your mother can be the traitor. Lord Whitehill could easily threaten to kill Ryon if she doesn't give any information.
All have the potential to be the traitor and it makes it all the more difficult to predict who is.
Everyone can be ruled out but Otengryn.. I dont think Mother could be the intruder. She asks to submit to Whitehill because it's the most obvious way to survive, else they're going to kill another Forrester at any moment.
But she is so desesperate inside to kill every Whitehill solider she can.. so I believe she can be excluded as well
Did you notice that he only has about 2 rings on his chain? That means he's a VERY new maester and has only studied two subjects, essentially. He's not experienced. I wonder where he was sent before the Forrester house. Maybe he had a brief appointment to the Whitehills. Or maybe he was born into the Whitehill house (not directly, but in the way Gared was born into the house's service) and was sent to the Citadel by the Whitehills. These are all just thoughts that I've had, I could be totally wrong. It's just pretty obvious that he's new to the Forrester house, judging by the links in his chain and his age, which make him the most likely to betray them, in my opinion. The least amount of time in service for the Forresters could mean that he has the least amount of loyalty as well.
I don't think she's the traitor because Lord Whitehill WANTS Rodrik to attack his men and cause conflict so he'll have free rein to wipe them out. Lady Forrester has been begging Rodrik to concede and do as Lord Whitehill commands, which was the advice that Gwyn gave. I don't think she's the traitor for that reason. She wants to keep the peace, if only to get Ryon back.
What reason would he have to betray? He's a maester he swore a vow at the citadel he seems an honorable man to me and being a maester he doesn't stand to gain anything.
What did Maester Pycelle gain from being a spy for Cersei? Plenty of people break their vows, whether they're maesters or Kingsguard or brothers of the Night's Watch. Maester Ortengryn could have unknown motives. Just as Gared is at the Wall and is being pressured into breaking his vows for House Forrester, Maester Ortengryn could be at Ironrath breaking his vows for House Whitehill. I'm just saying that he's got the least connection to the Forresters. He's the newest arrival and as such, should be viewed with a bit of suspicion. If you tell him about the North Grove and then tell Duncan that you revealed the secret to Ortengryn, Duncan becomes dismayed and implies that Ortengryn shouldn't be trusted. That was the first time I became suspicious of the maester. Maesters are almost anonymous. They have no surnames. Their individual histories are rarely known if not divulged by them. I think that's sufficient cause to be suspicious of the maester.
Lady Forrester
Motives: There is a possibility that she could be one of those characters that try to do the right thing by doing the wrong thing, and that includes approaching the Whitehills. May not be a malicious traitor, may believe she is only trying her best to protect her family, especially Ryon.
Traitor Chance: Unlikely, but still a possibility. Her love for her family is without doubt, but that can also work against her. 40%
Duncan Tuttle
Motives: Ambition, greed? It's a bit of a stretch because Lord Gregor trusted him with the crucial secret, so it would be a huge twist if he was a traitor. Other than personal ambition, his "good" motive could be similar to Lady Forrester, perhaps he saw the situation as deteriorating rapidly out of control and doesn't want to lose more Forresters, so he decided to strike a deal with the Whitehills.
Traitor Chance: Highly unlikely, but since he is involved heavily with the secret, the possibility is there. 20%
Royland Degore
Motives: He appears loyal to House Forrester and seems to hate the Whitehills. He also seems to be a fairly straight person, for example I can't see him "scheming" like Littlefinger. So for him to betray his House there has to be a significant reason. Perhaps he lost faith in the leadership? Or he hates Duncan and the maester so much for swaying the lord with their sage advice that he went to the Whitehills.
Traitor Chance: While it seems unlikely, we've seen bigger twists than this, so it's definitely possible. If he betrays, it won't be for ambition or gold, it would most likely be because he's lost faith in the Forresters. 20%
Maester Ortengryn
Motives: Could be anything. Greed, ambition, personal hate for the Forresters (perhaps he was slighted by them before the war). Too much to name, so it makes sense to highlight the opposite instead, like why wouldn't he betray the Forresters? Besides his maester oath, and perhaps personal honor, there is nothing practical to stop him from approaching the Whitehills.
Traitor Chance: By far the clear favorite, and for good reason. Telltale seems to dangle him in front of us like a red herring though. Could he be too obvious? There is not much known about this character so we'll just have to see. 80%
The Non-Sentinel
Motives: Obviously personal anger for being looked over as Sentinal by the young lord. Perhaps they had some other reasons but the Sentinel thing pushed them over the edge.
Traitor Chance: I've never seen something like this in a TTG so it would be very unique, and require a lot of proofreading testing to make sure everything works out. 30%
No Traitor
Motives: The point of this bluff would be to mess up House Forrester from within, planting seeds of doubt and hopefully cause them to collapse quickly.
Traitor Chance: This would be quite a twist, and would involve many people especially Gwyn, since she seems so certain. There would also need to be valid explanations on how the Whitehills are getting inside information from the decisions made by the small council. It doesn't necessarily have to be someone on the small council because those people could have revealed the information to eavesdroppers. Or perhaps the traitor is simply one of the Whitehill soldiers garrisoned there, a sneaky sort. 40%
I won't rule out anyone except for playable characters. At some point I even suspected Talia, but she seems to truly hate the Whitehills and is very stubborn so that doesn't seem possible, or make sense.
40%+20%+20%+80%+40%(no traitor) = 200%
Duncan 20% + Royland 20% > The Non-Sentinel 30%
That doesn't make sense...
Halve all the chances to make it 100% and make non-sentinel chance to 20% so Ducnan+Royland add up to 20%.
Thumbs up for a detailed analysis, though.
I knew someone would pick up on that, so thanks for getting it out of the way
I didn't know how long the list would be, so I sort of meant it as a weather forecast, precipitation chance sort of number. Dividing them up individually might make some of the unlikely's as low as 5% so it might be confusing to some. It may not make sense to the scientific mind, so just take it with a grain of salt. I considered using an ABC exam grading system but that might also be confusing.
I also don't think it's Royland, he is straightforward, honest and holds honor above everything else.
My feeling says it's Duncan. I don't have much proof, but somehow his demeneor makes him suspicious to me. Oh I just thought of something, what if he told Gwyn about their secret plans specifically to make it seem like there is a traitor? I don't know his intentions for doing so, but he seemed weird when he led us to the meeting.
Respect, my friend! What a nice post!
I am also highly suspicious of our dear Maester and I share your opinion. He is just too obvious to me and too much of a red herring for me to fully believe he is the traitor.
Pycelle and Kyburn swore a vows too, but they are a kind of traitors. Pycelle have spied for the Lannisters for a very long time, that's why I think Ortegryn is the same... and he's look.. there's definitely something in him. He's the traitor.
I totally agree with Lola_the_Guin.
Maybe there's no traitor and we all got played. We see the traitor story so much, what if we had to name one but we're wrong no matter what as the story is fabricated and as a result we loose whoever we names loyalty and they betray us anyway?
I'm pretty sure it's lady Forrester. She would do anything to ensure Ryon's safety, especially if she believes that Rodrik is headed for self-destruction.
Also the reveal would have a lot more emotional impact than a semi-unknown maester, which is a bonus for Telltale.
I don't think is anyone from the council but rather someone who is close to the council. Everyone is pretty obvious at this point in mh opinion. Sir Royland is too much of a proud man and has served the house for many years, he is not the type of person who would sell out information. Duncan was Lord Forrester's most trustworthy friend since he confided in him with the North Grove. The maester doesn't make any sence plus I don't think he is in all of Rodrik's council meetings. As for Lady Forrester she is already too expected from us to be the traitor I think it could be someone even more surprising.
Just gonna say I love your name.
I hope we get more dialogue scenes with the Maester in the next episode (similar to Episode 1) as to see if he really is just a red herring or a likely suspect as the traitor (this assuming we don't know discover who the traitor is at the very beginning of the episode).
depending on your choices i would trust pretty much no one.
I think it's most likely one of two possibilities:
1) Lady Forrester who is being coerced by the Whitehills by threatening to hurt Ryon. Lady Forrester is operating under the same misguided attempt to get back her child as when Caitlyn let Jaime Lannister free behind Robb's back. She probably feels that Roderik isn't working fast enough to get Ryon back.
2) Gwyn was bluffing. She knew Roderik and the family well enough to guess correctly which action they would take.
The motivations of Duncan, Royland and the Maester as suspects are difficult to reconcile. Duncan was raised from humble birth to Castellan by Gregor, so why he would conspire against the Forresters and guide Gared (his blood nephew) to the North Grove doesn't make sense. Royland is a straight shooter, and passing secrets doesn't fit his character. The Maester we don't really know much about, but he doesn't seem like a sleezy Pycelle. On the other hand, he is perhaps also the most suspicious because he doesn't have the long history with the Forresters like the others. Motivation is a problem though. In all of the Game of Thrones surprises, clues are left throughout the story, and doesn't come out of nowhere. If the Maester is betraying the Forresters, there would have to be a reason already established at earlier points.
I just thought about something... what if Lord Whitehill and his son Gryff dont really know about Rodrik's plan to either free Ryon or liberate Ironrath? What if it's just a scheme made between Gwyn and Duncan? They both want peace for their houses and they both like taking the initiative (sending Garred to the Wall, sending him to search the north Grove, telling Rodrick how his brother Ryon is, setting up the secret meeting). Another important thing to me is that nobody in the council seems actually a traitor but the Maester and him being the traitor would be too obvious... If this was to be true Duncan wouldnt really be a traitor IMO. Dont know, maybe someone already thought about it? What you guys think? It could be pretty interresting to see...
I think that's a really good theory. Duncan has to be involved somehow, but I can't think of a motive for him to betray his entire family/employers, so this sounds like the only possible option.
You know, we could go back and forth debating who the traitor is, and we'd never be sure if we got the right one. Alternatively, why not just execute the entire council for treason, and appoint a new one? That way you know you get them.
Brilliant!
Excellent idea! Not only are you committing kin-slaying (Elissa), you are also killing experienced men who know how to handle war (Royland), supplies and food (Duncan) and medicine (Ortengryn).
It is so easy to find and replace these kind of people right?
((I hope I didn't offend you with my sarcasm.))