Did people who had Asher honestly think...
That the ambush or poison would really work? Don't get me wrong, I know why they gave no chance for peace- it wouldn't make sense for those who chose Rodrik.
I could see the Forresters having a chance at the very beginning of the game. They had about 100 men on their side (since Duncan mentioned the Whitehills have 5 times their men, and Royland later on says most of them abandoned after Ethan died). With the 20 or so pit fighters and 20 Glenmore guards added to the 100 they might have had a chance of winning a siege against the Whitehills.
But after the abandonment of 80+ soldiers? After the loss of the Glenmore guard and like half the fighters and remaining soldiers? How in the blazes did Elissa and Talia even think that the marriage route was a bad idea? Everyone lives, Asher gets to marry his dream girl, and there's no more fighting.
Hell, Ludd was one of the most generous people at that moment- he really could have stormed the gate and slaughtered everybody but he gave them a chance, and he even gave his daughter and would have returned Ryon. I actually think his offer of peace was one of his best moments, even if he was still an ass about it.
Comments
I did think it could work but they're chances were low.
The point of the ambush/poison wasn't to kill the entire army. The purpose of it was to assassinate Ludd and Gryff in order to lower the morale of the Whitehills. Without the head of the Whitehills, there was a chance that a lot of them would abandon. Like Amaya said, "they would scatter like chickens with their head cut off".
Even without the poison/ambush, the Whitehills still barely won the battle. They lost Ludd or Gryff, Harys (no doubt the best fighter they had), and a significant amount of their army
Harys could probably have rallied them to fight. When Gryff/Ludd comes running to them, it was Harys who ordered them to take down the gate.
And even if it did work, there was a big chance Asher himself would be killed. And they didn't even lock the damn doors, I'm surprised only Ludd/Gryff came out and not a bunch of other dudes too.
They didn't lose a significant portion. They had about 15-20 that died in the great hall and enough inside the gates to outnumber the remaining Forrester soldiers , but once the army got through there were barely any more losses. At the very best I'd say they lost 75 or so, and that's being pretty generous to the Forresters. You have to keep in mind that most of the 500 were sitting outside with the ram.
"And Ned Stark always said 500 men could hold Winterfell against 10,000."
I did not take the Asher's road, but you got it: even if Ironrath isn't Winterfell, they're defending, hence on an adavantage.
The castle is well done so except some hidden road they're forced to go to the main gate to get the Castle. Having archers change things.
Anyway, I don't remember where Royland said almost all men leave? I mean, I think he trains people meanwhile, it's weird to believe it was defended by only twenty men.
Now with the battering ram which was like a formula one (and some soldiers who get inside I don't know how in Rodrick's way) it changed things..
When Rodrik comes back, you can tell Royland "find me an army." and Royland mentions that's not easy to do since most of the men abandoned after Ethan died. 80 out of 100 definitely seems like most.
500 vs 10,000 is not as bad as 20 vs 500. Reason is, 10,000 men are going to need a huge amount of food and supplies, which the 500 men can outlast. And that's probably a well stocked Winterfell. Duncan mentions in the very first episode they're running low on supplies and might need to take from the smallfolk- so there's not a good chance they're going to be able to hold in their keep and wait out the Whitehills before the gate goes down.
In Rodrik's story, you can see soldiers get through a breach in the gate. The battering ram in Asher's story is honestly a glaringly big plothole.