Yeah and the gun shot would have woken Kenny up for sure. It's possible that Kenny might have shot Arvo at this point and forced Mike to run… more away. We really don't know cause after Clem is shot, the screen goes black, we see a flashback of Lee in the RV, and a few hours later we wake up in the truck to see Kenny and Jane arguing.
Actually, its implied that Arvo and Mike are gone by the time Kenny comes out. Jane and him mention that they took off on foot and good riddance, respectively. Also, if Bonnie drowned alongside Luke, Kenny will only be concerned about Clementine, implying that either the two had left already or they were just making tracks when he came out and he was more worried about helping Clementine.
Here's what I got from a combination of sources and observations:
Arvo really was planning to run away with his sister, as apparently confirmed on a stream(someone made a thread saying so a few weeks back in a manner that indicates vindication, so I assume that its true). Him stashing the medicine was most likely for the reason I gave above: a quick getaway without baggage slowing them down.
Running into Clementine and Jane derailed this, as Clementine eventually either agrees to take the medicine or Jane sends him off without his gun. If you let the timer run out, he reacts to seeing Clementine behind the cannon as if he was just planning to drop it off and get back quickly but it wouldn't fit and now he's encountered a potential obstacle.
He arrives back home later that evening to be busted for sneaking out(teenagers, am I right? ). He either has to come clean about what happened to him or, since I haven't seen any specific evidence of them knowing where the medicine is if you let him keep it, he probably just found another hiding place and Jane attacking him gave him a convenient alibi to get off easy. Either way, they decide that they're gonna find the ones who attacked/robbed him and get retribution for it.
The Russian Group patrol the roads(my attempt to rationalize how they'd show up no matter when you decide to leave) until Arvo spots the Howe's Ski Cabin group letting Rebecca rest up. He approaches them and either halfheartedly attempts to stall for time while the others close in through the woods or simply acts as faux affably evil as he can muster if Clementine warned Luke and Kenny first and his sister comes out first upon hearing that they know they're there. She confirms with him that this is them and the other two have a laugh at the fact that Clementine was apparently the one, despite her being "smaller than Buricko's dog"(I assume he told them it was two females but didn't specify age, probably out of embaressment).
Buricko then instructs Arvo to tell them to put their weapons on the ground so they can take their things. The notion that this wasn't planned comes from the fact that many of the translations I've seen suggests that he didn't actually have anything in mind, as he responds to Arvo asking him what he wants from them with some variation of "Well shit, I don't know. Just anything useful, I guess." The fact that his initial order is relatively lengthy, along with the hints of reluctance on Arvo's part, adds to the idea that this was an on the spot decision.
Ok, things get varied based on dialogue, so I'll combine it: as you know, reminding him about Jane has him ask his group and then Clementine about her whereabouts before starting to get nervous, telling him you're not giving him anything has him sadly state that Buricko isn't telling him to ask(which also gets you the "we should've met differently" line, along with being silen), and suggesting that you make a deal has him ask Buricko to hold off for a bit to hear her terms before Buricko tells him that they're not making deals with them: they're taking everything.
Of course, the group pulls they're own guns out at this point. His own group starts to get nervous at this point, as Buricko tells Arvo to get them to surrender, Vitali questions why they're not cooperating, Natasha attempts to reassure them that Arvo's doing the best he can, and Arvo himself flipflops between following orders and getting everyone to calm down. Notably, promising that the Howe's Ski Cabin group will lower they're guns if the Russians do the same will have Arvo stammer a bit with uncertainty before Natasha tells him to try harder.
The baby being discovered causes things to get out of hand as the Russians argue amongst both each other and the group about getting them to lower they're guns, just getting the medicine back so they can go, , and telling Buricko(and/or Vitali, as TV Tropes likely claims due to the two being switched) to back off before someone gets killed.
Not really important, but Vitali's dialogue in the next episode has him yelling at the group in a rage for killing Natasha and eventually, going as far as to claim Arvo's dead(not sure if he means already as a bluff, to him for getting them into this mess, or specifically in spirit because Natasha's dead; translations vary a just enough) and that Kenny would only be helping him when he takes him hostage and outright stating that he will kill everyone of them, with his intentions for Kenny being to simply let him bleed out while he kill the others.
At the very least, killing them seems like it wasn't the intention/priority and so its possible that they just wanted to rob them when they found them both as retribution and for the sake of it, as at least one translation has Vitali/Buricko(don't recall which one, though; most likely the former) mention wanting ammo.
Anyways, this was very clearly something that they decided to make canon post-production. Otherwise, why wouldn't there be hints of Arvo being on the run from the Russians in the actual game?
Perhaps and who knows? Obviously, the only real hint towards this is the fact that Arvo was hiding the medicine in a far off place to begin with. Another thing that's worth noting is how he acts when the medicine and thus his sister are threatened while talking to Jane, as well as how he seems to hesitate if asked why he was stashing it in a garbage can. This indicates that it is Natasha's medicine and he really doesn't want her to be without it, but he obviously has another reason for bringing it out there that he doesn't want to tell them. Given that Jane just considered stealing the medicine, its obvious that he wouldn't trust them to help him.
Then, if that is true, it all starts making even less sense.
From what I've gathered: Arvo who was in the process of running away from hi… mores group, got caught by Buricko, Vitali and Natasha. As a mean to redeem himself, they make him stall our group long enough for them to circle us, making the perfect ambush.
But here's the problem. If robbing wasn't the motive being the ambush in the first place, then what was? They specifically waited until they were able to surround us before showing up. And they had guns pointed at our faces. If their intention beforehand wasn't robbing us, then it was certainly to kill us. Which would make Buricko actually the "good guy" who decided that they should show mercy and just rob us instead - which sounds ridiculous.
There had to be a motivation behind the ambush in the first place after all!
Anyways, this was very clearly something that they decided to make canon post-production. Otherwise, why wouldn't there be hints of Arvo being on the run from the Russians in the actual game?
Not to get too conspiracy theorist here, but I get the feeling Arvo may have had something to do with Sarah and/or Jane's character arcs at one point in development, as the timing of him showing up when and where he did, combined with the stark similarities and differences he has with them, always struck me as a bit too coincidental with what they were going through at the time to be an accident.
I think "[punishing] players for not siding with Kenny" is a little dramatic, it could be because the writers for episodes 4 and 5 differed.… more Maybe originally he was to have another role and possibly even die. A flip like this would definitely cause a rift in motivations and roles.
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The gunshot did wake Kenny up, in fact you can hear him storming out of the house yelling, "What did you do? What the fuck did you do?!".
You know what, I was actually thinking of that French Nihilist, for some reason.
Actually, its implied that Arvo and Mike are gone by the time Kenny comes out. Jane and him mention that they took off on foot and good riddance, respectively. Also, if Bonnie drowned alongside Luke, Kenny will only be concerned about Clementine, implying that either the two had left already or they were just making tracks when he came out and he was more worried about helping Clementine.
Here's what I got from a combination of sources and observations:
At the very least, killing them seems like it wasn't the intention/priority and so its possible that they just wanted to rob them when they found them both as retribution and for the sake of it, as at least one translation has Vitali/Buricko(don't recall which one, though; most likely the former) mention wanting ammo.
Perhaps and who knows? Obviously, the only real hint towards this is the fact that Arvo was hiding the medicine in a far off place to begin with. Another thing that's worth noting is how he acts when the medicine and thus his sister are threatened while talking to Jane, as well as how he seems to hesitate if asked why he was stashing it in a garbage can. This indicates that it is Natasha's medicine and he really doesn't want her to be without it, but he obviously has another reason for bringing it out there that he doesn't want to tell them. Given that Jane just considered stealing the medicine, its obvious that he wouldn't trust them to help him.
Not to get too conspiracy theorist here, but I get the feeling Arvo may have had something to do with Sarah and/or Jane's character arcs at one point in development, as the timing of him showing up when and where he did, combined with the stark similarities and differences he has with them, always struck me as a bit too coincidental with what they were going through at the time to be an accident.