Just purchased 680 coins of free Club Nintendo crap.
I like this system of "get free stuff for buying what I was going to buy anyway and didnt need the extra motivation" policy they have:D
And if you guys care, I got the DS Mario themed case for the 3DS games and grill off with ultra handorwhateverfreewiiwaregame.
Yeah...my horrible horrible midterm just became about fifty percent more horrible in the last few hours. Mainly due to the three extra problems that are going to be added to it.
Yeah...my horrible horrible midterm just became about fifty percent more horrible in the last few hours. Mainly due to the three extra problems that are going to be added to it.
So screwed...
SOLUTION: become a task master. Study stringently. Also, forums probably aren't helping. In any case, caffeine is your friend.
It has a 25% chance of working, if you round that it is 50%, and if you round that it is 100% I mean that is very close!
I hope your test is not in statistics.
On a talk show once I heard a guy arguing that there was a 50% chance the Earth would end in 2012, because either the Earth WOULD end or it would NOT end, and therefore there was a 50-50 chance for each.
On a talk show once I heard a guy arguing that there was a 50% chance the Earth would end in 2012, because either the Earth WOULD end or it would NOT end, and therefore there was a 50-50 chance for each.
Technically speaking... If you were just measuring the two arguments, then it seems plausible... Not correct, but plausible...
Technically speaking... If you were just measuring the two arguments, then it seems plausible... Not correct, but plausible...
The number of possibilities has nothing to do with the probability of each occurring.
1. The eggs in my kitchen did not explode an hour ago
2. The eggs in my kitchen did explode an hour ago
The probability of option 1 is 0%. The probability of option 2 is 100%.
Unless the guy has some evidence (like an asteroid with a 50% chance of a trajectory into the Earth), the chances of the world ending in 2012 are almost certainly not 50%...
The number of possibilities has nothing to do with the probability of each occurring.
1. The eggs in my kitchen did not explode an hour ago
2. The eggs in my kitchen did explode an hour ago
The probability of option 1 is 0%. The probability of option 2 is 100%.
Unless the guy has some evidence (like an asteroid with a 50% chance of a trajectory into the Earth), the chances of the world ending in 2012 are almost certainly not 50%...
So if you open your fridge and there's yoke everywhere we are all gonna die?
The number of possibilities has nothing to do with the probability of each occurring.
1. The eggs in my kitchen did not explode an hour ago
2. The eggs in my kitchen did explode an hour ago
The probability of option 1 is 0%. The probability of option 2 is 100%.
Unless the guy has some evidence (like an asteroid with a 50% chance of a trajectory into the Earth), the chances of the world ending in 2012 are almost certainly not 50%...
Probability =/= Chance
Either the world will end or it won't. With absolutely no outside evidence for either, it's 50/50. Yours is the past. The past has no chance. But still. The world ain't gonna end anytime soon. And you can quote me on that.
So if you open your fridge and there's yoke everywhere we are all gonna die?
You're not paying attention. They DID explode.
The "either it does or it doesn't, so it's 50-50" "argument" is one I've heard before, although never from someone who seriously believed it and always as a stupid joke.
Either the world will end or it won't. With absolutely no outside evidence for either, it's 50/50.
If you have no evidence for either possibility, then you extrapolate the most recent results.
The Earth has existed since its creation.
Therefore, the Earth will continue to exist unless something interferes.
This guy has no evidence of interference.
So, the probability is high that the Earth will continue to exist.
There may be unknowns, but statistics can only use the data you actually have.
This is a meathod my friends and I swear by for tests.
When in doubt PICK C!!!!
That only works if it's a multiple choice question. I know these aren't allowed in France because there is a chance (and a high one at that) that someone could guess without actually knowing the answer.
I think that's completely reasonable. Not only can you guess if you have no idea, but seeing the option might remind you it's the answer, and you want to know things well enough that you can answer without hints.
It can be annoying. For instance, if the answer to a question is "the 3rd of July 2008" and you say it's the second, you get zero point, just like the person whose answer was completely wrong, such as "the 25th of September 1864". Or, since I studied languages, in my case, if you make a spelling mistake you don't get points even if you had the right word.
Oh, that reminds me how most of my teachers gave no points and on top of that removed points if you made certain mistakes. One of them was having an irregular verb wrong. A teacher in particular made you copy the whole list (from our textbook, so it wasn't exhaustive) 20, 50 or 100 times depending on the verb you got wrong, and that list was several pages long! I hated that. I remember once I mixed "lie" and "lay", I never made that mistake again >.>
You know what I like about this thread? I don't have to worry about getting scolded for going off-topic. That's really nice.
If you have no evidence for either possibility, then you extrapolate the most recent results.
The Earth has existed since its creation.
Therefore, the Earth will continue to exist unless something interferes.
This guy has no evidence of interference.
So, the probability is high that the Earth will continue to exist.
There may be unknowns, but statistics can only use the data you actually have.
Is that not outside evidence?
I have not died.
Therefore I will not die.
I am immortal.
So my dad and I got outside around mid-morning and unloaded our massive amounts of purchases from yesterday off the truck. Then my dad went to vacuum dirt out of rock (don't ask), while I prepared to do something else. Then my sister called, saying she was on the side of the highway with a bad flat. That turned into a two hour ordeal just to get the car home, then it took a while longer to sort out new tires (which she's getting tomorrow, so since I'm home landscaping and she goes to school, she has my car until hers is fixed).
So with the car sorted out, my dad returned to vacuuming his rocks. Well, as we were dumping the shop vac in the trash, we heard a slamming and a shattering in the garage. The high winds today had caught the garage door and slammed it so hard that the window shattered. So now we get to try to fix that tomorrow.
And to close out the day, we spent time moving rock from one side of the yard to the other. We have it bordering the fence on the two sides of our yard, but my dad had moved a section of it into a pile on the other side to fix some fence posts. He wasn't going to put it back, but he changed his mind. We knocked off about two hours ago with that job half done. Four of our six to seven days are gone, and we were hoping to be rototilling by the second or third day. We'll be lucky to get the sod in before my dad goes back to work.
I have not died.
Therefore I will not die.
I am immortal.
Oddly enough, that is EXACTLY what happens statistically.
(Numbers are examples, but the principle is the same)
When you were born, your life expectancy is 75, and the chance of you dying in the next year is .5%.
As you age and other people drop off, your life expectancy increases.
By the time you're 65, your life expectancy is 81, and the chance of you dying in the next year is 1.7%.
When you're 75 (which was your life expectancy at birth), your life expectancy is 85, and the chance of you dying in the next year is 4%.
When you're 93, your life expectancy is 96, and the chance of you dying in the next year is 25%.
No matter how old you get, the chance of you dying never hits 100%, and your life expectancy continually increases. The data may indicate that the average person would have died by now, and that will make your life expectancy approach your current age. But given that you haven't died yet and no one has poisoned your prune juice, those two numbers will never meet. Assuming you never die, you live forever. Once you do die, you become part of the average.
Comments
I still need to finish the old DLC before I buy the final one. I finished Kasumi tonight.
Is the new one even out yet?
I like this system of "get free stuff for buying what I was going to buy anyway and didnt need the extra motivation" policy they have:D
And if you guys care, I got the DS Mario themed case for the 3DS games and grill off with ultra handorwhateverfreewiiwaregame.
Yeah...my horrible horrible midterm just became about fifty percent more horrible in the last few hours. Mainly due to the three extra problems that are going to be added to it.
So screwed...
SOLUTION: become a task master. Study stringently. Also, forums probably aren't helping. In any case, caffeine is your friend.
Yes, this is my plan. Well, maybe not the caffeine...my tolerance is so low for that stuff I'd probably be up for a week.
No, it's on Monday. Thank goodness for that. If it were tomorrow, I'd be a lot more panicked.
There's just so much information. I didn't even know that sedoheptulose even existed until yesterday!
One, two, three... GUESS!
If it were tomorrow, I'd applaud your courage for posting on these forums.
When in doubt PICK C!!!!
It has a 25% chance of working, if you round that it is 50%, and if you round that it is 100% I mean that is very close!
I hope your test is not in statistics.
On a talk show once I heard a guy arguing that there was a 50% chance the Earth would end in 2012, because either the Earth WOULD end or it would NOT end, and therefore there was a 50-50 chance for each.
Technically speaking... If you were just measuring the two arguments, then it seems plausible... Not correct, but plausible...
The number of possibilities has nothing to do with the probability of each occurring.
1. The eggs in my kitchen did not explode an hour ago
2. The eggs in my kitchen did explode an hour ago
The probability of option 1 is 0%. The probability of option 2 is 100%.
Unless the guy has some evidence (like an asteroid with a 50% chance of a trajectory into the Earth), the chances of the world ending in 2012 are almost certainly not 50%...
So if you open your fridge and there's yoke everywhere we are all gonna die?
Probability =/= Chance
Either the world will end or it won't. With absolutely no outside evidence for either, it's 50/50. Yours is the past. The past has no chance. But still. The world ain't gonna end anytime soon. And you can quote me on that.
You're not paying attention. They DID explode.
The "either it does or it doesn't, so it's 50-50" "argument" is one I've heard before, although never from someone who seriously believed it and always as a stupid joke.
How did the eggs explode!?
If you have no evidence for either possibility, then you extrapolate the most recent results.
The Earth has existed since its creation.
Therefore, the Earth will continue to exist unless something interferes.
This guy has no evidence of interference.
So, the probability is high that the Earth will continue to exist.
There may be unknowns, but statistics can only use the data you actually have.
ohhh..so the earth is doomed then!
That only works if it's a multiple choice question. I know these aren't allowed in France because there is a chance (and a high one at that) that someone could guess without actually knowing the answer.
I think that's completely reasonable. Not only can you guess if you have no idea, but seeing the option might remind you it's the answer, and you want to know things well enough that you can answer without hints.
It can be annoying. For instance, if the answer to a question is "the 3rd of July 2008" and you say it's the second, you get zero point, just like the person whose answer was completely wrong, such as "the 25th of September 1864". Or, since I studied languages, in my case, if you make a spelling mistake you don't get points even if you had the right word.
Oh, that reminds me how most of my teachers gave no points and on top of that removed points if you made certain mistakes. One of them was having an irregular verb wrong. A teacher in particular made you copy the whole list (from our textbook, so it wasn't exhaustive) 20, 50 or 100 times depending on the verb you got wrong, and that list was several pages long! I hated that. I remember once I mixed "lie" and "lay", I never made that mistake again >.>
You know what I like about this thread? I don't have to worry about getting scolded for going off-topic. That's really nice.
Noted.
Is that not outside evidence?
I have not died.
Therefore I will not die.
I am immortal.
Excellent! That being said, I imagine it plays into Mass Effect 3 rather well.
What does it include, anyway?
What if the options are from A to E? WHAT THEN?!
There's a 20% chance, which rounds to a... 0% chance. WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!
So my dad and I got outside around mid-morning and unloaded our massive amounts of purchases from yesterday off the truck. Then my dad went to vacuum dirt out of rock (don't ask), while I prepared to do something else. Then my sister called, saying she was on the side of the highway with a bad flat. That turned into a two hour ordeal just to get the car home, then it took a while longer to sort out new tires (which she's getting tomorrow, so since I'm home landscaping and she goes to school, she has my car until hers is fixed).
So with the car sorted out, my dad returned to vacuuming his rocks. Well, as we were dumping the shop vac in the trash, we heard a slamming and a shattering in the garage. The high winds today had caught the garage door and slammed it so hard that the window shattered. So now we get to try to fix that tomorrow.
And to close out the day, we spent time moving rock from one side of the yard to the other. We have it bordering the fence on the two sides of our yard, but my dad had moved a section of it into a pile on the other side to fix some fence posts. He wasn't going to put it back, but he changed his mind. We knocked off about two hours ago with that job half done. Four of our six to seven days are gone, and we were hoping to be rototilling by the second or third day. We'll be lucky to get the sod in before my dad goes back to work.
That, my friend; would be spoiling. Be advised, though: Reapers are involved.
Makes sense that Reapers would be involved, given the end of ME2.
Stupid Reapers, always spoiling the victory celebrations.
Like Chewbacca not getting a medal in Episode IV and making everyone feel bad about it. VICTORY CELEBRATION RUINED.
Huh...I never thought of that before. Now, I feel bad about forgetting Chewbacca. Poor, forgotten Wookie. Even the droids got a polish.
Yes, but no medal for Chewie. Not even a combing or a pat on the head. Poor guy... thing... animal dude.
I was imagining something like Ghostbusters...
Oddly enough, that is EXACTLY what happens statistically.
(Numbers are examples, but the principle is the same)
When you were born, your life expectancy is 75, and the chance of you dying in the next year is .5%.
As you age and other people drop off, your life expectancy increases.
By the time you're 65, your life expectancy is 81, and the chance of you dying in the next year is 1.7%.
When you're 75 (which was your life expectancy at birth), your life expectancy is 85, and the chance of you dying in the next year is 4%.
When you're 93, your life expectancy is 96, and the chance of you dying in the next year is 25%.
No matter how old you get, the chance of you dying never hits 100%, and your life expectancy continually increases. The data may indicate that the average person would have died by now, and that will make your life expectancy approach your current age. But given that you haven't died yet and no one has poisoned your prune juice, those two numbers will never meet. Assuming you never die, you live forever. Once you do die, you become part of the average.
See?
http://i.ehow.com/images/a04/qs/qq/estimate-expectancy-chance-dying-age-800X800.jpg
You should take calculus. It's awesome.